OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27

CBJ · Columbus Blue Jackets

2-3-0 · 4 pts · Metropolitan · Eastern

WOWY — CBJ pairs →

Outlook · as of Fri, Oct 16

94proj pts80–108

47%playoffs

8%division

3%Stanley Cup

Lineup and model inputs → Full standings → This week's games →

The team count

Goals above replacement (GAR) by game state, each row the skaters plus any team term that state carries. The rows add to the total exactly. A traded skater counts here only for his games with this club.

Even strengthskater value at 5v5 (the model's frozen even-strength scope), itemized below — the players carry this state whole+1.924th

Power playskater value only this season — the team power-play estimate is fitted on complete seasons and is added once the season is over+0.126th

Penalty killone team term — individual PK credit did not repeat, so the club carries it, held to its measured reliability−0.129th

Penaltiesskater value from minors drawn less minors taken — the club's opportunity, carried whole by its players+0.227th

Measured team value+2.125th

How this count is built

The skaters

Zach Werenski

+0.4 Charlie Coyle

+0.2 Denton Mateychuk

+0.2 Matthew Knies

+0.2 Damon Severson

+0.1 Valeri Nichushkin

even strength power play penalties (net)· negative components sit left of the zero line

Measured skater value+2.2 goals

Last 5 gamespre-game

Tue, Oct 13vs FLAL3–753%

Sat, Oct 10@ STLL3–548%

Fri, Oct 9vs PITW3–2 SO53%

Sat, Oct 3vs UTAL1–452%

Thu, Oct 1vs BUFW6–351%

Next 5 gameswin chance

Sat, Oct 17vs NYR54%

Sun, Oct 18@ MIN44%

Tue, Oct 20vs TOR58%

Sat, Oct 24vs VGK51%

Tue, Oct 27@ PHI52%

OPEN COUNT — NHL · 2026-27 PROJECTION

CBJ · Columbus Blue Jackets

After 5 games · 2-3-0, 4 pts · as of Fri, Oct 16 · Metropolitan

Standings →

94proj pts80–108

47%playoffs

8%division

3%Stanley Cup

51%win vs avg club

+17.426thproj GAR, forwards

+13.51stproj GAR, defense

What the game model sees

Expected regulation goals a game against a league-average opponent (home and away averaged), and the inputs that produce them.

Goals for a game2.8213th2.10 at 5v5 + 0.56 on the power play + 0.16 other (4v4, 3v3, 5v3) · league average 2.80

Goals against a game2.7411th1.97 at 5v5 + 0.61 on the penalty kill + 0.16 other · league average 2.80

Inputs, in goals a game against the league-average club:

5v5 offense (skaters)+0.0214th

5v5 defense (skaters)+0.026th

Power play (skaters)−0.0324th

Penalty kill (team rating)−0.0526th

Power-play time a game4.0 min31stleague average 4.7 min

Last 5 gamespre-game

Tue, Oct 13vs FLAL3–753%

Sat, Oct 10@ STLL3–548%

Fri, Oct 9vs PITW3–2 SO53%

Sat, Oct 3vs UTAL1–452%

Thu, Oct 1vs BUFW6–351%

Next 5 gameswin chance

Sat, Oct 17vs NYR54%

Sun, Oct 18@ MIN44%

Tue, Oct 20vs TOR58%

Sat, Oct 24vs VGK51%

Tue, Oct 27@ PHI52%

The expected lineup

Everyone who has dressed in the club's last ten games, weighted by how often he played and his usual share of the ice time. Values are goals above replacement per 60 minutes; “Per game” is that value at these minutes. The penalty kill enters as a team rating — individual kill value did not repeat season to season.

Forwards

Skater	Value	Per game	Off/60	Def/60	PP/60	5v5 min	PP min	PK min
Adam Fantilli	Live	+0.013	+0.06	−0.01	+0.01	14.7	2.8	0.5
Matthew Knies	Live	+0.011	+0.05	−0.01	+0.04	13.4	2.8	0.1
Kent Johnson	Live	+0.010	+0.05	+0.01	−0.06	12.7	2.7	—
Sean Monahan	Live	+0.020	+0.09	−0.00	+0.01	12.8	1.7	1.5
Valeri Nichushkin	Live	+0.020	+0.09	+0.01	−0.06	12.7	1.6	1.2
Charlie Coyle	Live	+0.042	+0.17	+0.01	+0.14	11.9	2.4	2.5
Cole Sillinger	Live	+0.009	+0.04	+0.00	—	13.2	—	1.7
Conor Garland	Live	+0.013	+0.06	−0.01	+0.11	11.5	1.6	—
Mathieu Olivier	Live	+0.024	+0.10	+0.01	—	12.6	—	0.9
Dmitri Voronkov	Live	+0.022	+0.12	+0.00	+0.01	10.3	1.8	—
Danton Heinen	Live	+0.017	+0.07	+0.02	—	11.1	—	1.1
Ryan Lomberg	Live	+0.006	+0.04	−0.00	—	9.3	—	—

Defense

Skater	Value	Per game	Off/60	Def/60	PP/60	5v5 min	PP min	PK min
Zach Werenski	Live	+0.084	+0.21	+0.02	−0.00	21.5	3.0	2.4
Denton Mateychuk	Live	+0.038	+0.09	+0.03	+0.05	20.2	1.5	1.4
Erik Gudbranson	Live	−0.008	−0.03	−0.01	—	14.4	—	2.8
Carson Soucy	Live	+0.001	−0.00	+0.01	—	14.0	—	1.8
Damon Severson	Live	+0.034	+0.12	+0.05	+0.03	11.9	0.3	0.7
Jake Christiansen	Live	+0.002	+0.01	+0.00	—	8.2	—	0.5
Emil Andrae	Live	+0.010	+0.04	+0.04	—	7.3	—	—

Value sources: Live this season's play blended with the projection · Proj last season through the projection model · Carried missed last season, earlier projection discounted · Repl no history.