GAMES

Win probabilities for the week ahead, from the game model: each club's expected goals built from its expected lineup's player value, its penalty kill and its projected power-play time. Lineups are expected, not announced; updated every morning.
Fri, Oct 16
PIT45%@55%COL
PIT reg. 34%OT/SO 22%COL reg. 44%
goals expected 2.8 – 3.2
BOS49%@51%ANA
BOS reg. 37%OT/SO 23%ANA reg. 39%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.8
Sat, Oct 17
NJD47%@53%WSH
NJD reg. 36%OT/SO 23%WSH reg. 41%
goals expected 2.8 – 3.0
CAR57%@43%WPG
CAR reg. 45%OT/SO 23%WPG reg. 32%
goals expected 3.0 – 2.5
VAN34%@66%TBL
VAN reg. 23%OT/SO 21%TBL reg. 55%
goals expected 2.3 – 3.4
SEA42%@58%FLA
SEA reg. 30%OT/SO 23%FLA reg. 47%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.1
NYI47%@53%TOR
NYI reg. 36%OT/SO 23%TOR reg. 41%
goals expected 2.7 – 2.9
BUF47%@53%MTL
BUF reg. 36%OT/SO 23%MTL reg. 41%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.9
SJS44%@56%DET
SJS reg. 32%OT/SO 23%DET reg. 45%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.0
OTT51%@49%PHI
OTT reg. 39%OT/SO 24%PHI reg. 37%
goals expected 2.7 – 2.7
NYR46%@54%CBJ
NYR reg. 34%OT/SO 23%CBJ reg. 43%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
DAL59%@41%CHI
DAL reg. 47%OT/SO 23%CHI reg. 30%
goals expected 3.0 – 2.4
STL50%@50%NSH
STL reg. 38%OT/SO 23%NSH reg. 39%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.8
BOS45%@55%LAK
BOS reg. 33%OT/SO 23%LAK reg. 44%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.0
EDM48%@52%UTA
EDM reg. 36%OT/SO 23%UTA reg. 41%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.9
PIT43%@57%VGK
PIT reg. 31%OT/SO 23%VGK reg. 46%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.1
Sun, Oct 18
CBJ44%@56%MIN
CBJ reg. 32%OT/SO 23%MIN reg. 44%
goals expected 2.5 – 2.9
CAR58%@42%CGY
CAR reg. 47%OT/SO 23%CGY reg. 31%
goals expected 3.1 – 2.6
Mon, Oct 19
ANA47%@53%NYR
ANA reg. 35%OT/SO 23%NYR reg. 42%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
COL57%@43%PHI
COL reg. 46%OT/SO 23%PHI reg. 32%
goals expected 3.1 – 2.6
SJS46%@54%TOR
SJS reg. 34%OT/SO 23%TOR reg. 43%
goals expected 2.7 – 3.0
PIT46%@54%UTA
PIT reg. 34%OT/SO 23%UTA reg. 43%
goals expected 2.8 – 3.1
Tue, Oct 20
SJS40%@60%MTL
SJS reg. 29%OT/SO 22%MTL reg. 49%
goals expected 2.5 – 3.2
COL47%@53%NJD
COL reg. 35%OT/SO 23%NJD reg. 42%
goals expected 2.8 – 3.0
ANA46%@54%NYI
ANA reg. 34%OT/SO 23%NYI reg. 43%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
LAK47%@53%WSH
LAK reg. 35%OT/SO 23%WSH reg. 42%
goals expected 2.8 – 3.0
TOR42%@58%CBJ
TOR reg. 30%OT/SO 23%CBJ reg. 47%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.1
WPG45%@55%STL
WPG reg. 34%OT/SO 23%STL reg. 43%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
BOS45%@55%DAL
BOS reg. 33%OT/SO 24%DAL reg. 43%
goals expected 2.5 – 2.8
MIN44%@56%EDM
MIN reg. 32%OT/SO 23%EDM reg. 45%
goals expected 2.5 – 3.0
DET49%@51%SEA
DET reg. 37%OT/SO 23%SEA reg. 40%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.9
CAR60%@40%VAN
CAR reg. 49%OT/SO 22%VAN reg. 29%
goals expected 3.2 – 2.5
TBL48%@52%VGK
TBL reg. 36%OT/SO 23%VGK reg. 41%
goals expected 2.7 – 2.8
Wed, Oct 21
PHI41%@59%BUF
PHI reg. 30%OT/SO 23%BUF reg. 47%
goals expected 2.5 – 3.0
FLA50%@50%OTT
FLA reg. 38%OT/SO 24%OTT reg. 38%
goals expected 2.7 – 2.7
Thu, Oct 22
NSH46%@54%BOS
NSH reg. 34%OT/SO 23%BOS reg. 43%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
NYR52%@48%TOR
NYR reg. 40%OT/SO 23%TOR reg. 36%
goals expected 2.9 – 2.8
SJS44%@56%OTT
SJS reg. 32%OT/SO 23%OTT reg. 44%
goals expected 2.6 – 2.9
ANA44%@56%NJD
ANA reg. 32%OT/SO 23%NJD reg. 45%
goals expected 2.6 – 3.0
FLA46%@54%PIT
FLA reg. 34%OT/SO 23%PIT reg. 43%
goals expected 2.7 – 3.0
LAK50%@50%NYI
LAK reg. 38%OT/SO 23%NYI reg. 38%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.8
VGK51%@49%STL
VGK reg. 39%OT/SO 24%STL reg. 37%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.7
WPG43%@57%DAL
WPG reg. 31%OT/SO 24%DAL reg. 46%
goals expected 2.4 – 2.9
MIN55%@45%CGY
MIN reg. 43%OT/SO 23%CGY reg. 34%
goals expected 2.9 – 2.6
CAR50%@50%EDM
CAR reg. 38%OT/SO 23%EDM reg. 39%
goals expected 2.8 – 2.8
UTA54%@46%SEA
UTA reg. 43%OT/SO 23%SEA reg. 35%
goals expected 3.1 – 2.8
DET55%@45%VAN
DET reg. 43%OT/SO 23%VAN reg. 34%
goals expected 2.9 – 2.6

Percentages are the chance to win the game, overtime and shootout included; the bar splits regulation wins, overtime (gray) and the other side's regulation wins. Goals expected are regulation goals, empty-net goals excluded. Scored on all 2,624 games of 2024-25 and 2025-26 from the information available the morning of each: log loss 0.6748 against 0.6832 for a points-pace baseline. How the game model works.