STANDINGS

Atlantic — top three

	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Diff	Proj		PlayoffsPO	Div	Cup
1	OTT · Ottawa Senators	8	6-2-0	12	+3	9783–111		57%	13%	3%
2	BOS · Boston Bruins	7	5-2-0	10	+10	9682–110		56%	13%	3%
3	TBL · Tampa Bay Lightning	7	5-2-0	10	+2	10390–117		78%	31%	7%

Metropolitan — top three

	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Diff	Proj		PlayoffsPO	Div	Cup
1	CAR · Carolina Hurricanes	8	6-1-1	13	+12	10693–120		86%	43%	9%
2	NYR · New York Rangers	9	6-3-0	12	+7	9783–110		59%	13%	3%
3	WSH · Washington Capitals	7	4-3-0	8	+2	9581–109		52%	10%	3%

Wild card

	Team	GP	Record	Pts	Diff	Proj		PlayoffsPO	Div	Cup
1	FLA · Florida Panthers	8	4-2-2	10	0	10086–113		67%	19%	5%
2	BUF · Buffalo Sabres	8	4-3-1	9	−6	9582–109		51%	10%	3%
3	NJD · New Jersey Devils	7	4-3-0	8	0	9783–111		58%	13%	4%
4	TOR · Toronto Maple Leafs	8	3-3-2	8	0	8875–102		27%	3%	1%
5	NYI · New York Islanders	7	3-3-1	7	+3	8874–102		28%	3%	1%
6	PIT · Pittsburgh Penguins	7	3-3-1	7	+3	9581–109		50%	9%	3%
7	MTL · Montréal Canadiens	7	3-3-1	7	−4	9278–106		40%	6%	2%
8	DET · Detroit Red Wings	7	2-3-2	6	−5	9076–104		32%	5%	2%
9	CBJ · Columbus Blue Jackets	5	2-3-0	4	−5	9480–108		47%	8%	3%
10	PHI · Philadelphia Flyers	9	0-6-3	3	−22	8268–95		11%	1%	1%

Current orders the table on points, then points percentage, then goal differential (Diff; the shootout-deciding goal counts as one, as the league counts it). Projected orders it on projected points, the mean of the simulations; the bar spans the middle 80%. Simulated ties break on points, then regulation wins, regulation plus overtime wins, and wins — head-to-head and goal differential are not simulated. Cup odds play the bracket out on the same game probabilities, each club's strength held at today's estimate plus a season-long uncertainty. Tested on 2024-25 and 2025-26 from the information available on each date: final-points error 9.57 against 10.08 for a regressed points-pace baseline; 80% ranges held the final total 78% of the time. How the projection works.