QUARTERBACKS

Portable talent, rated on the Factor Elo offense scale: the offense you would have if the whole offense were this quarterback. The model assigns him half of his team's offense — an assigned split, held fixed, not a measured truth — so his effect on a game is half the gap between his rating and his supporting cast.

32 quarterbacks

Rk ↑	Quarterback	Team	Rating	Effect	Cast	Situation	Starts
1	Josh Allen	Buffalo BillsBUF	1647	+37	1573	—	5
2	Brock Purdy	San Francisco 49ersSF	1634	+44	1545	—	5
3	Drake Maye	New England PatriotsNE	1623	+56	1512	—	5
4	Jared Goff	Detroit LionsDET	1622	+33	1556	—	5
5	Dak Prescott	Dallas CowboysDAL	1608	+27	1555	—	5
6	Jordan Love	Green Bay PackersGB	1595	+51	1494	—	5
7	Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City ChiefsKC	1589	+33	1524	—	4
8	Matthew Stafford	Los Angeles RamsLA	1579	+24	1530	—	5
9	Joe Burrow	Cincinnati BengalsCIN	1578	+20	1539	—	5
10	Lamar Jackson	Baltimore RavensBAL	1574	+9	1557	—	4
11	Daniel Jones	Indianapolis ColtsIND	1574	+23	1527	—	5
12	Trevor Lawrence	Jacksonville JaguarsJAX	1555	+9	1537	—	5
13	Sam Darnold	Seattle SeahawksSEA	1536	+3	1530	—	5
14	Michael Penix Jr.	Atlanta FalconsATL	1533	+18	1497	—	3
15	Caleb Williams	Chicago BearsCHI	1532	−0	1533	—	2
17	C.J. Stroud	Houston TexansHOU	1525	+8	1509	—	5
18	Bo Nix	Denver BroncosDEN	1523	+11	1500	—	6
19	Jalen Hurts	Philadelphia EaglesPHI	1516	+12	1493	—	5
20	Jayden Daniels	Washington CommandersWAS	1507	+2	1504	—	3
21	Baker Mayfield	Tampa Bay BuccaneersTB	1506	+14	1479	—	3
22	Kirk Cousins	Las Vegas RaidersLV	1503	+5	1493	—	5
24	Aaron Rodgers	Pittsburgh SteelersPIT	1495	−2	1498	—	5
25	Malik Willis	Miami DolphinsMIA	1493	+27	1439	—	5
26	Bryce Young	Carolina PanthersCAR	1493	−10	1512	—	4
27	Tyler Shough	New Orleans SaintsNO	1484	−8	1499	—	5
28	Jacoby Brissett	Arizona CardinalsARI	1481	−1	1482	—	5
29	Justin Herbert	Los Angeles ChargersLAC	1479	+4	1471	—	5
31	Jameis Winston	New York GiantsNYG	1461	−19	1499	−11	3
33	Kyler Murray	Minnesota VikingsMIN	1447	−21	1489	—	4
36	Deshaun Watson	Cleveland BrownsCLE	1425	−3	1431	—	5
38	Geno Smith	New York JetsNYJ	1410	−23	1456	—	5
40	Cam Ward	Tennessee TitansTEN	1368	−39	1447	—	5

Rating is the portable number and travels with the player; it is the QB component of his team's Factor Elo offense, never part of the Team Elo. Effect is what he adds to this particular offense over its supporting cast. Situation is the team-phase term on his latest start, shown only when live. Ratings from the log are as the model saw them entering each quarterback's latest start.

Two numbers, never summed

Teams starting someone other than their established quarterback underperform their rated parts by a few points, and it is a property of the team's disrupted phase rather than of the replacement. Holding the seed profile fixed and varying only the situation:

Same rating profile, different situation	n	miss (pts)
as the established starter, games 1–2	366	+0.3
as the established starter, games 3+	2158	+0.5
stepping in for a displaced starter, starts 1–2	103	−7.5
stepping in for a displaced starter, starts 3+	90	−1.6

So the situational penalty lives in its own line — starting at −62 on this scale (about four points) and fading over the first few starts — and the quarterback's rating stays portable. The “Situation” column here is that term on his latest start.