New York Giants

3–1–1 · NFC East · QB Jameis Winston
#21
1481 Team Elo
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Projected finish
8.2–7.8 expected
46% playoffs
40% division
1% first-round bye
4%
5–11
10%
6–10
19%
7–9
23%
8–8
21%
9–7
14%
10–6
6%
11–5
2%
12–4
10+ wins 23% · win out <1%
Upcoming
W6vs #27 New Orleans Saints NO line −1.5
63%
stakes 10/100· playoff odds 53% if win, 34% if losstap to see what it moves
stakes 13/100· playoff odds 59% if win, 39% if losstap to see what it moves
stakes 19/100· playoff odds 62% if win, 35% if losstap to see what it moves
stakes 11/100· playoff odds 55% if win, 33% if losstap to see what it moves
The receipts
WkOpponentResultWin%±Rating
W1vs #17 Dallas Cowboys DAL W 28–2048%+11.01486
W2@ #3 Los Angeles Rams LA L 6–2830%−14.91471
W3vs #30 Tennessee Titans TEN W 12–764%+1.21472
W4vs #30 Arizona Cardinals ARI W 36–2464%+9.51482
W5@ #26 Washington Commanders WAS T 27–2752%−0.61481
Ratingseed 1475✓ receipts = rating1481

Each game moves the rating by K × (result − expectation), where the result is scaled by margin. Start at the season seed, add every line, and you land on today's rating — exactly. Win% is the model's calibrated probability before kickoff.

Rating profile
Team Elo
1481 #21
Offense
1468 #27
↳ Quarterback
1461 #28
Defense
1486 #18

Team Elo is the board's rating, built from margins. Offense and defense are the two Factor Elos — a second model that rates points per possession — and the quarterback is a component inside offense (the ↳). They are shown as the model saw them entering week 6.

Factor Elos
Supporting cast1495
QB · Jameis Winston−19
Situation−17
Offense1458 #27
Defense1486 #18

Offense and defense are rated in points per possession by a second model. Cast plus the quarterback's marginal effect plus the situational term equals offense, exactly. The situation line is non-zero only when a team is starting someone other than its established quarterback — that is a property of the team's phase, not the player, so it is kept outside his rating.

Trajectory
#19#22#25W1W3W6

Team Elo rank after each week. Bye weeks hold the previous rank.

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