PLAYOFF

5 highest-ranked conference champions auto-bid; seeds 1–4 get first-round byes; straight seeding by résumé rank.
The bracket seeds by résumé — who earned it. The probabilities predict the committee, who weigh things differently. They will disagree. Projected records add the remaining FBS schedule to what has been played; FCS dates still ahead are not simulated.

First-round byes

1Notre Dame #16–0 · FBS Ind4.162Georgia #26–0 · SEC · AUTO4.053Alabama #35–1 · SEC3.934Miami #45–0 · ACC · AUTO3.66

First round

12 Boise State #185–1

at

5 Indiana #56–0

11 UCLA #115–0

at

6 Ohio State #65–1

10 BYU #105–0

at

7 Texas Tech #75–0

9 Texas #94–1

at

8 Utah #85–0

The bubble

#12Missouri5–12.65#13Houston5–12.56#14Kentucky5–12.56#15Ole Miss4–12.53#16Mississippi State4–12.52#17LSU4–22.48#19Northwestern4–12.30#20Nebraska5–12.17#29James Madison6–01.65

Playoff Probabilities — simulation includes committee bias

#	Team	P(field)	P(bye)	P(auto)	P(CCG)
2	Georgia4.05	95%	75%	54%	84%
4	Miami3.66	89%	36%	74%	96%
3	Alabama3.93	80%	42%	19%	42%
1	Notre Dame4.16	78%	34%	0%	0%
6	Ohio State3.22	76%	39%	45%	65%
5	Indiana3.65	72%	33%	33%	61%
9	Texas2.95	62%	23%	5%	12%
8	Utah3.08	56%	21%	27%	47%
7	Texas Tech3.19	54%	17%	28%	52%
10	BYU2.85	51%	16%	24%	53%
18	Boise State2.40	48%	<1%	46%	95%
15	Ole Miss2.53	42%	12%	6%	16%
12	Missouri2.65	34%	10%	6%	15%
11	UCLA2.84	33%	7%	9%	32%
17	LSU2.48	24%	4%	1%	4%
29	James Madison1.65	24%	<1%	24%	88%
24	Tennessee2.03	23%	4%	3%	7%
13	Houston2.56	22%	4%	7%	16%
14	Kentucky2.56	21%	3%	1%	5%
26	Iowa1.97	19%	3%	4%	11%
25	Wake Forest1.99	19%	1%	11%	44%
27	Arizona1.94	18%	3%	8%	15%
28	Oklahoma1.82	18%	3%	3%	11%
16	Mississippi State2.52	16%	3%	1%	2%
22	USC2.09	16%	2%	2%	7%
21	Oregon2.10	13%	2%	3%	7%
23	Wisconsin2.09	9%	1%	3%	11%
20	Nebraska2.17	8%	1%	1%	3%
19	Northwestern2.30	8%	1%	1%	3%
40	North Dakota State1.03	7%	0%	7%	59%
35	New Mexico1.37	7%	0%	7%	55%
33	Baylor1.40	7%	1%	4%	10%
45	SMU0.88	5%	<1%	4%	21%
37	Memphis1.19	5%	0%	5%	47%
43	Auburn0.93	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
54	Fresno State0.44	3%	0%	3%	40%
47	UTSA0.80	3%	0%	3%	41%
32	Oklahoma State1.47	3%	<1%	2%	5%
30	Florida1.65	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
44	Duke0.92	3%	<1%	2%	7%
31	Pittsburgh1.49	3%	<1%	1%	5%
42	Liberty0.94	2%	0%	2%	81%
36	Clemson1.19	2%	<1%	2%	9%
39	Oregon State1.08	2%	0%	2%	35%
41	Texas A&M0.96	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
34	South Carolina1.38	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
64	UNLV0.09	2%	0%	1%	51%
51	Louisville0.48	1%	0%	1%	6%
49	Michigan0.64	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
53	Air Force0.46	1%	0%	1%	22%
57	Cincinnati0.39	1%	<1%	<1%	1%
55	North Texas0.44	1%	0%	1%	31%
59	Florida Atlantic0.31	1%	0%	1%	20%
38	North Carolina1.13	1%	<1%	<1%	1%
65	Virginia0.02	1%	0%	1%	5%