PLAYOFF

5 highest-ranked conference champions auto-bid; seeds 1–4 get first-round byes; straight seeding by résumé rank.
The bracket seeds by résumé — who earned it. The probabilities predict the committee, who weigh things differently. They will disagree.

First-round byes

1Indiana #113–0 · Big Ten champ · AUTO4.602Texas Tech #212–1 · Big 12 champ · AUTO4.263Ohio State #312–1 · Big Ten4.224Georgia #412–1 · SEC champ · AUTO3.70

First round

12 Tulane #2711–2

at

5 Oregon #511–1

11 James Madison #1712–1

at

6 Notre Dame #610–2

10 Utah #1010–2

at

7 Texas A&M #711–1

9 BYU #911–2

at

8 Miami #810–2

The bubble

#11Alabama10–33.11#12Ole Miss11–13.03#13Vanderbilt10–22.97#14Oklahoma10–22.90#15USC9–32.48#16Texas9–32.46#18Iowa8–42.16#19Michigan9–32.15#42Boise State9–40.92

How safe was the case — selection odds on the final résumés

#	Team	P(field)	P(bye)	P(auto)	P(CCG)
1	Indiana4.60	100%	>99%	100%	100%
2	Texas Tech4.26	100%	68%	100%	100%
4	Georgia3.70	100%	45%	100%	100%
17	James Madison2.31	>99%	0%	>99%	100%
3	Ohio State4.22	99%	66%	0%	100%
27	Tulane1.57	98%	0%	98%	100%
7	Texas A&M3.49	97%	43%	0%	0%
5	Oregon3.65	96%	35%	0%	0%
9	BYU3.28	93%	26%	0%	100%
11	Alabama3.11	81%	10%	0%	100%
8	Miami3.32	56%	3%	0%	0%
12	Ole Miss3.03	47%	2%	0%	0%
6	Notre Dame3.65	45%	1%	0%	0%
14	Oklahoma2.90	45%	2%	0%	0%
13	Vanderbilt2.97	18%	<1%	0%	0%
16	Texas2.46	13%	<1%	0%	0%
10	Utah3.28	10%	<1%	0%	0%
42	Boise State0.92	2%	0%	2%	100%
15	USC2.48	1%	0%	0%	0%